中國宏觀經(jīng)濟分析與預測(英文版論文)

中國宏觀經(jīng)濟分析與預測(英文版)

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China’s MacMrcaccoerceoeeoncnomonnimommcic Analylllsis & ForFreorrceascstassitnigng：
2009-2010009-2010009-009-010010------ A Way Out of ChinasMacroeconomicDilemmaOveereeviieiiwUnder the influence of powerful stimulus policies and inventory adjustment cycle, in 2009,China’s macro-economy successfully rode out profound downturn since the third quarter of 2008.
The real economy showed signs of rebound surpassing e*pectations, inflation e*pectations beganto rise, asset prices rapidly increased, and the macro-economy rebounded quickly, but foreigndemand slumped severely. The forecast is that annual GDP growth ratewill attain 8.56%, and CPIgrowth rate will attain -0.7%, with the reduction of the foreign trade surplus reaching 87.4 billionUSD comparedwith 2008.
Atpresent, China’s overallmacro-economy has been enteringthe transitionalperiod from “policy-stimulating rebound stage” to “market-demand rebound stage”. This determines that China’se*pectation-surpassing rebound has specific properties of “policy orientation”, “structuralimbalance”, “dynamic instability”, “l(fā)ack of interaction among growth factors” and “the volatilityof general direction” as
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GDP deflatorwillbe 2.9%. By 2010, Chinawill haveno obviousinflation,andtheupsurgeof assetpricescan becomea majorfocal point.
The core element in macroeconomic policies is to break through the “dilemma” and “effectivepolicy coordination predicament” under multi-objective constraints by adopting the strategy of“moving forward for the sake of retreat”. Both strategies of “retreat for the sake of retreat” and“stability to promote retreat” will be insufficient to achieve the dual goals of “comprehensiveeconomic recovery” and “smooth withdrawing of macroeconomic stimulus policies”. It may beChina’s best choice in the immediate future to “move forwardfor the sake of retreat”, to maintainratherhigh growthrates, to adjuststructure andto promote reform at high growth rate, as well as toseek the way for withdrawal in continuance. In macro-economic control, a relative weakening of“structural objectives” and “inflation targets” as well as a strengthening of “pace targets” will bean effective way to solve “effective policy coordination predicament” under multi-objectiveconstraints. For 2010, specific policy recommendations for the macroeconomic control are asfollows:
1. The substance of “moving forward for the sake of retreat” is not just a simple case of
maintaining the current proactive fiscal policy and monetary policy,nor laying the foundation ofcontinuous governmental rebound or acceleration, but a large-scale entrance of fiscal policy andmonetary policy in support of mass-market demand, so as to set the stage for the recovery ofmarket demand and the formation of endogenous growth mechanism, based on relatively stablegovernmentstimulus demand. Therefore, monetary policy in the future should go one step furtherto strengthen the infiltration of liquidity into the real economy,ratherthan preventprice recovery.
Fiscal policies should be concentrated on all sorts of constructions of social security system, thereform of wage formation mechanism, people’s livelihood projects as well as public services,rather than infrastructure investment. Fiscal deficit, under the precondition of rising revenues in2010, should not be reduced. Newly-issuedaggregate credit will be no less than 7.2 trillion, whenmonetarypolicymaintains the normalgrowth of M2 andM1 at thesametime.

2. The currentvarious types of projects underconstruction from governmentinvestmentshouldbe
stabilized; there should be a modest restraint for new local projects and further investmente*pansion, avoiding large numbers of “unfinished projects” between 2011-2012, which may bebrought about by deterioration of local governments finances, worsening the structural problems.
Investmentin government-subsidizedhousing constructionmustbe strengthenedandimplemented.

3. It is opening up of industries and access adjustment, not capital guarantee and interest rate
subsidies, that can become the principal factors for kick-start of private investment. At the sametime, it should be restrained that large-sized state-owned enterprises further enter generalcompetitivefields in the state of upsurgeof profits andcapital, to avoidan e*cessivesituation that“thestate-ownedsectoradvances,whilethe privatesectorretreats”.

4. Consumption rides on the construction of social projects and institution, rather than a simple
one-time income growth. Thus, consumption policies in 2009 can be appropriately e*tended orpartly e*panded, but they should not be large-scale and comprehensive. E*cessive stimulation ofconsumption policies could become a real obstacle to market consumption, leading to the2possibility of unnecessary fluctuations or social unrest brought by the withdrawal in the future.
Consumption policies shouldbe coordinatedwith the improvementof people’s livelihoodprojects,wagereform,social securitysystem,as well as publicservices.

5. It is necessary to be oriented by “investment leverage ratio” control, to be supplemented by
interest rate regulation, and to constrain a bulge in asset prices that may appear in 2010, in whichthe core tools include an appropriate increase of banks’ capital adequacy ratio, restrictions onmargin trading of stocks, demanding conditions formortgageloans to non-government-subsidizedhousing, strictcontrolon hotmoneyinflows,as well as thedifferentialadjustmentof interestrates.

6. The real estatemarketregulationis a majorfocal pointof 2010, andincreasing supply is still the
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